There was a time when, in politically complex situations, analysts worked out different courses of action, collected data, compared scenarios, analysed risks… so that the decision of the statesman was informed. But that was a long time ago. It’s probably happening in Russia today, and quite possibly in the US. Certainly not in Europe. There, feelings and media image are the deciding factors.
That’s one of the reasons why Donald Trump’s latest actions have caused such a shock. Yet nothing surprising has happened. What was surprising was the one emotional scene in front of the cameras. But that the Trump administration does not want to pay for the continuation of the war and does not want to share responsibility for it was clear all along. It negotiated a reasonable end to it, and if Zelensky wants hundreds of thousands more dead, that’s his problem. America has no reason to get further involved. The American arms companies are free to sell weapons, but that’s not the business of the American government.
But that’s only half the story.
The other half is that Trump’s revolutionary government is subject to the same laws as all revolutionary governments before it, and that includes the involuntary export of revolution. You want to build something in your country that will be the envy of the world. You don’t want to be delayed by wars. But you are constantly confronted with the fact that someone abroad is funding the White Guards, sending intervention armies, supporting the overthrown government… this is not just a question of the Revolutionary War, but of every revolution in the last centuries. In the end you have no choice but to show strength, push for regime change elsewhere, and then compromise. America can very easily find itself in that situation vis-a-vis much of the European Union, which is trying to drag America into a war while covertly pushing for political regime change.
Let us not forget that the Trump revolutionary government inherited from its predecessor the secret services and the infrastructure for organising foreign coups.
I am afraid that the European politicians have not the remotest idea what they are playing with. Just as they had no idea when they decided to go to war in the east. By the way, putting two world powers in a situation where they have no choice but to go against you is a historically unique masterstroke.