Redneck Sociology

Philip Tetlock has spent decades studying the art—and failure—of forecasting. He gathered a vast archive of predictions, both published and private, tracked which ones came true, and sorted the results…

It was once taken for granted that in times of war, government must be strong, decisive, and—if necessary—nearly unconstrained. Only such a government could marshal the resources required for victory.…

Professor Budil and I often approach the same questions from opposite angles. Take his concept of “cognitive intolerance,” which broadly corresponds to what I describe as rationality. The difference is…

Why do I suspect that the age of social media is slowly drawing to a close? It’s actually quite simple. When I want to reach a specific person, I call…

Another round of the Epstein affair is already fading from the headlines. But the issue itself is likely to stay with us for good. For decades to come, we will…

By now, dozens of studies suggest—if not outright demonstrate—that the sense of civilizational decline is, to a significant extent, a feature of the human mind itself. It arises from a…