The public space is full of “guarantees” that the Americans are supposed to give to the current Ukrainian regime. On the face of it, this is great. The word conjures up feelings of stability and security. Who could question that. Something like “a just peace”. Of course, a just peace is better than an ordinary peace. But even better would be a “just and wise peace”. And best of all, “a just and wise peace with love”.
Only, if we don’t let our feelings get the better of us and take a good look, those guarantees turn out to be quite ordinary deception. There are basically only two possibilities.
The security guarantee may be that if Russia invades Ukraine, the Americans will assess how serious the situation is, who provoked the conflict and decide whether to intervene. The leaders of the threatened Ukrainian regime may feel that if Trump is president, they will not get help in any way. Probably a justified feeling.
Or the security guarantee could be so strong that after the first shot is fired, America will be obliged to attack Russia. In that case, of course, the Ukrainian regime could purposely bring the conflict closer, provoke it, perhaps even start it… and blackmail the Americans. No American government can agree to anything like that.
The idea of security guarantees from the US or Europe is flawed from the start. Ukraine’s security must be based on a combination of interests, balancing of forces and skilful diplomacy.
By the way, Ukraine has already had an offer of peace with China as a guarantor. That could work. But Zelensky refused to discuss such a possibility.
No way. All the talk about guarantees is just and only an excuse to prolong the war endlessly and to adopt a “win or die!” attitude.