It looked like the war in Ukraine could be ended in a few hours or days at most, and the reality is that it is proving more difficult. What is so difficult about it? I think Donald Trump believed (as did most informed commentators) that this was effectively a Russian-American conflict and that others were just playing the role of American servants. It’s just that it’s more complicated than that.
There is a Ukrainian fascist regime that has a vested interest in a long and bloody war. That it will mean the loss of more territory, economic damage and hundreds of thousands more dead Ukrainians is of absolutely no interest to it. And it is a regime that is capable of pursuing its priority vigorously. And then there are some European governments with the same attitude – their priority is a long war, without regard for their own peoples and without regard for the economies of their own countries.
In terms of power games, this is a very unusual situation. It is normal to play against someone who is aggressive and wants it badly. It is normal to play against someone who is trying to destroy you. But it is rare and difficult to play against someone who is trying to destroy themselves and take you down with them.
And that’s exactly how the game is being re-profiled:
- Former World War II allies against former Nazis (or renewed Nazis?),
- those who want to live, against the suicides.
It’s probably not hard to understand that the usual business tricks and the usual diplomatic procedures don’t work here.