A thoughtful reader, whom I have mentioned here before, also sent in a note on technological optimism. He suggested that optimism has been replaced by dark dystopian visions because managements use new technologies exclusively against people and because the quality of products keeps deteriorating – despite technological progress.
“You could say that we’ve moved from a science-fiction society to a fantasy society, and it’s no wonder that this genre has been gaining popularity compared to, say, the 1980s. I’d argue that the defining feature of fantasy isn’t really swords, dragons, and dwarves, but rather a world in decline or stagnation, one with a glorious past – where the hero must endure hardship to obtain a weapon from ancient times. A powerful wizard usually tries to decipher old scrolls snatched from the clutches of undead guardians in the tomb of his long-dead predecessor, rather than invent spells his predecessor could never have imagined. Well, when a colleague recently brought me a vacuum cleaner from early-1990s West Germany (originally made in the USA) to repair, I felt somewhat the same way.”
The same goes for cars. Until recently, I drove a 1999 Toyota, and I know I couldn’t buy one like that today. And the same applies to many other products.
I therefore agree with this description, but it doesn’t quite capture the essence of the problem. Technological optimism is not based on the idea that good people (or at least fairly good people) use technology for good purposes. Technological optimism is based on the belief that even if scoundrels now use machines against us, one day we will use them ourselves. And if not these machines, then the next generation of technologies. That if someone invents a digital concentration camp, someone else will eventually invent a way to escape from that digital concentration camp – and that such development cannot be stopped.
Such a view, however, requires one to think of political power and technology separately, as two spheres that overlap but each has its own dynamic. And that in turn requires one to understand technology not just as a user, but also technically. And that again requires a solid foundation in physics or mathematics.
Perhaps the loss of technological optimism is a necessary consequence of the loss of knowledge and skills. This would be supported by the fact that in those civilizational spheres where knowledge is still increasing, technological optimism continues to prevail.