The German invasion of the Soviet Union brought not only devastation but also a transformation in Stalin’s rule and Stalinist ideology. The regime realized that repression alone would not suffice; it needed popular support. The turning point is often marked by Stalin’s Moscow speech of November 1941. It was not about Marxism or class struggle but, for the first time since 1917, about Russian statehood, national tradition, and the heroes of Russian history. The regime’s war on Orthodoxy came to an end. The defense of the revolutionary Marxist state was transfigured into the Great Patriotic War.
I recall this history because something strikingly similar appears to be happening in Iran after its humiliating defeat in the short war with Israel. Western intellectuals will always discover some parameter by which Iran “really” won. But the region itself saw something else entirely: Israel’s terrifying freedom to strike targets on Iranian soil at will, as if Tehran’s defenses scarcely existed. Against that backdrop, it is hardly surprising that Iran is not rushing to revive its nuclear program. Once was enough.
And here lies the decisive moment. On July 29, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei delivered a lengthy address in which he did not once mention Islam. Instead, he exalted Iranian nationalism, invoking the empire’s millennia-long history some thirty times, praising its civilizational heritage, and stirring national pride. Only weeks earlier, pre-Islamic history had been officially nonexistent. Now it was elevated as a source of legitimacy. At the same time, the much-feared morality police appear to have softened their grip.
A regime change in Iran remains unthinkable. Decades of methodical purges have ensured that all viable rivals are dead or in prison. Careful reform, then, is the best outcome the heirs of Persia may hope for. And in the end, it may well be they—rather than Israel—who reap the longer-term benefit of this war.