In light of the assassination of Charlie Kirk, I am once again asked whether the United States is on the brink of civil war. As so often, the answer depends entirely on how one defines civil war.
It is certainly not imminent in the sense of Texas and Florida launching military attacks on California. Nor is an uprising against the federal government conceivable. Today’s federal authorities command such overwhelming military power that any direct confrontation would be crushed within hours.
Nor is a war of militias or small private armies realistic. Popular anger and determination are not enough. Armed conflict requires command structures, communications, training, logistics, and supply chains. No non-state actor in America possesses such capacities.
What is possible—indeed, likely—is that America is entering an era of heightened political violence. At present, it is liberals who are killing, but it is only a matter of time before conservatives strike back. State security forces will attempt to suppress the violence, but whatever they do, one side or the other will interpret their actions as tyranny.
It is worth recalling that the United States has already lived through several periods of intense political violence. What matters for us is whether this contagion will spread to Europe—as the attempted assassination of Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico last year ominously suggests.