Simplifying Blame
One of the basic findings of psychology is that wherever strong emotions are involved, it becomes very difficult for us to observe a conflict with any degree of balance. We…
The Expert Illusion
Philip Tetlock has spent decades studying the art—and failure—of forecasting. He gathered a vast archive of predictions, both published and private, tracked which ones came true, and sorted the results…
Rethinking Limited Government
It was once taken for granted that in times of war, government must be strong, decisive, and—if necessary—nearly unconstrained. Only such a government could marshal the resources required for victory.…
Speculation Over Production
Professor Budil and I often approach the same questions from opposite angles. Take his concept of “cognitive intolerance,” which broadly corresponds to what I describe as rationality. The difference is…
Life After Social Media
Why do I suspect that the age of social media is slowly drawing to a close? It’s actually quite simple. When I want to reach a specific person, I call…
The Honesty Paradox
Another round of the Epstein affair is already fading from the headlines. But the issue itself is likely to stay with us for good. For decades to come, we will…