An observation from the Czech-British anthropologist Ernest Gellner:
In societies where production expands rapidly—for example, industrial societies that quickly adopt new innovations, though not only those—people can improve their circumstances by working harder, learning to use more advanced technology, and so on.
In societies where material production does not grow, however, there is little benefit in working harder or more efficiently. It is more rational to focus on improving one’s position relative to others and securing a larger share of the existing pie. Economists call this a zero-sum game. Such societies typically place greater emphasis on distinctions between social classes and tend to look down on ordinary work. What is considered noble instead is warfare and magic—or, in some cases, religion.
When Gellner wrote this (he died in 1995), he was, of course, referring to traditional agricultural societies. If the total amount of arable land is fixed and the methods of cultivation are fixed as well, there is little room for increasing output.
Yet the description also fits the West of recent decades. Although it has recorded economic growth for much of that time, the growth has been primarily financial rather than an expansion of material production. In terms of physical goods, we have returned to a zero-sum world. And, remarkably, events have unfolded much as Gellner’s framework would predict.
This brings us to the heart of the problem. Endless material growth is neither possible nor desirable for many reasons. But bringing growth to a halt may produce consequences that are even more severe—including the possibility of civilizational collapse.