I am sometimes criticized for exaggerating when I speak of a “cold civil war.” I am told that this description does not reflect reality. But what does it mean, in the first place, to “reflect reality”?
In my view, there are two interconnected standards.
First, does a given framework explain reality as a whole? If the traditional image of democratic political competition cannot account for phenomena such as criminal prosecution over a political poster, then it is no longer sufficient. In that case, we must look for a different way of understanding what is happening.
Second, the best description of reality is the one that allows for the most accurate and reliable predictions. We can describe the situation as normal democratic rivalry and try to anticipate the next moves of political actors accordingly. Or we can describe it as a cold civil war and base our expectations on that assumption. Which approach leads to better forecasts?
From this perspective, several distinguishing criteria emerge.
- Do both sides respect a set of rules that they apply equally to their opponents and to themselves?
- Do they regard the other side as legitimate and recognize its right to pursue its political program?
- Are there shared values and principles that both sides continue to affirm as a common bond?
- Do they conduct themselves in such a way that cooperation remains possible once the contest is over?
- Are there moral and civic commitments that clearly unite them?
Do they speak of their opponents as people who merely advocate misguided policies—or as agents of darkness and enemies of civilization itself?
These questions mark the difference between political competition and a cold civil war.
In a healthy republic, rivals may argue fiercely, but they remain members of the same moral and constitutional community. They accept limits, honor unwritten rules, and preserve the possibility of reconciliation. When these habits erode, politics ceases to be a contest among fellow citizens and begins to resemble something far more dangerous.
That is the line between ordinary democratic rivalry and a cold civil war.