A reader wrote to me:
“I clearly remember the words of my first employer after the fall of communism in 1989, when I started working for him: ‘Mr. X, workers will never rule again, because they’re too stupid for that and we’ll never let them — so think carefully about which side you want to be on…’”
That scoundrel perfectly captured how the times were changing.
In 1920, there was no major difference in intelligence or knowledge between a worker and a factory owner.
By 1950, factory directors were, on average, more educated than workers — but since there were more workers overall, there were still enough smart individuals among them. That gave the working class an advantage — both in parts of Europe and in the United States.
By the year 2000, selection mechanisms had become so effective that the managerial class consisted of people significantly more capable than those working with their hands.
When I defended my dissertation in 2015, it included data tables showing that this gap has steadily widened over time.
If it was always true that social conflicts actually play out more between competing elites than between classes, in the 21st century it’s doubly so.
But that’s only part of the story. At this point, it seems that innate intelligence is no longer the decisive factor.
Much more important are traits like perseverance, willingness to learn, and the ability to choose and apply sound analytical methods.
Who prevails in social struggles will depend far more on which social bubble creates an atmosphere that encourages growth — where it’s normal for people to work on themselves — and, conversely, which bubble sinks into silly conspiracy theories.
And once again, we arrive at the point that those who are unwilling to spend years preparing — or worse, who waste all those years by focusing only on the next election — cannot expect to win.